Base-Rate Neglect and Imperfect Information Acquisition

Causal model and sampling approaches to reducing base rate neglect

Two studies examined how sampling of base rate information and causal explanation of false positives facilitate intuitive probability judgments. Experiment 1a varied these two manipulations factorially. Each had an additive effect on reducing base rate neglect and increasing choice of the normatively correct solution. Experiment 1b showed that description of relevant distributional information ...

The Influence of (Im)perfect Data Privacy on the Acquisition of Personal Health Data

We investigate the consequences of imperfect data privacy on information acquisition of personal health data. In a game of persuasion with ex-ante symmetric information players decide on whether or not to acquire and reveal information about their personal health status to convince a decision maker to interact. We contrast three institutional settings: automatic dissemination of acquired inform...

A Bayesian Latent-Mixture Model Analysis Shows That Informative Samples Reduce Base-Rate Neglect

The development of heuristics in children: Base-rate neglect and representativeness

This paper examines the development of the representativeness heuristic in early childhood. Using a novel paradigm, we investigated 3to 6-year-old children’s ability to use base-rate and individuating information in their predictive inferences. In Experiment 1, we presented children with base-rate and individuating information separately to test their ability to use each independently. In Exper...

Does Imperfect Data Privacy Stop People from Collecting Personal Health Data?

Privacy regulations can affect the willingness to collect personal health data that may be disclosed to insurers. Perfect privacy cannot always be guaranteed. Consequently, people may refrain from collecting personal health data. This paper provides a theoretical and experimental analysis of the importance of privacy regulations for information acquisition and disclosure behavior. We contrast t...